Whew, let’s start with the national-level numbers first, which are pretty staggering to say the least. As you can see from the chart, India’s estimated unemployment rate was just cruising along at a reasonable 10-11% through the first quarter of 2020. Nothing too crazy, right? Well, hold on to your hats folks!
Bam! The pandemic arrived, lockdowns were imposed, and unemployment rates absolutely skyrocketed – soaring past an eye-watering 23% in both April and May 2020. I don’t know about you, but my jaw hit the floor seeing those numbers. We’re talking the highest jobless levels India has seen in decades, by a long shot. Even major economic crises of the past didn’t produce spikes this insane. It’s a brutally clear indicator of just how severely those initial lockdowns shuttered economic activity nationwide.
Cities Absorb the Biggest Body Blow
Now when we look across India’s different regions and areas, one stark divide screams off the page – urban areas got pummeled way harder than rural ones initially. Just look at the sunburst plot. Urban jobless rates skyrocketed above 25%, while rural areas saw a “mere” 18% spike (and I use mere very loosely here!).
In major cities like Delhi, peak unemployment went into absolutely ludicrous territory, nearly hitting 40% in April-May 2020. You can point to a few brutal realities that made urban economies get slammed this badly:
- Stricter lockdowns and many city folks unable to work from home
- Concentration of vulnerable sectors like manufacturing, trade, hospitality in cities
- Reverse migration of workers fleeing back to rural areas
State Fortunes Diverge Dramatically
But amid this nationwide economic carnage, some states definitely got hit much harder than others based on their industrial makeups and local policy responses.
Jharkhand, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh suffered some of the worst blows, with average jobless rates above a staggering 30% during this stretch. Meanwhile, states like Karnataka, Kerala, and Gujarat did a relatively better job limiting the damage, with peaks below 15%.
The countplot really highlights this stark variation in state-level fortunes. While around 10 very unlucky states did see unemployment rocket past 20%, a decent number managed to keep rates in single-digit territory even at the peak crisis point.
Rural regions focused on agricultural activities were better positioned to keep operating, while urban areas and states heavily reliant on industry/services got decimated. The timing and extent of state lockdown policies were also a factor.
Recovery Roadblocks (For Now?)
After those nightmarish April-May months, things did finally start recovering as states eased restrictions over the summer. The national jobless rate trended down and settled around 12-13% by late 2020, while still elevated.
But as we all know too well, the road back has been extremely bumpy. Subsequent COVID waves brought more localized unemployment shocks across states in the following months before improvements could resume again.
While data quality remains an issue, one thing is clear – the pandemic triggered arguably the most severe employment crisis India’s workforce has ever faced. Millions upon millions were left jobless at the peak. Overcoming that long-term economic scarring and reinvigorating sustainable opportunities is going to be a herculean task for policymakers.
I don’t know about you, but after poring over those numbers, I could really go for a cold beverage! 2020 was one hell of a year that absolutely pulverized India’s economy and workers. Let’s hope we’ve seen the worst of it and the recovery can steadily take hold from here. I’ll drink to that! Though in all seriousness, it’s going to take a monumental effort to get employment back on track across the country.
Data sources: Unemployment in India